WTI crude weekly forecast, 7 to 11 Sep 2026: Crude breaks its triangle as the Hormuz campaign escalates
By Emanuele Calcina · Updated 5 September 2026 · Prices are Friday closes · All weekly forecasts · This week's full article
Here is where we keep wti crude for the week of 7 to 11 Sep 2026: the chart we trade against, the levels we use and the print that can change our mind. Friday close 91.48, +9.7% on the week. The wti crude note for Tuesday is added to this page after the close.
| Market | Friday close | Week | Daily chart | 20-day low / high | What decides the week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude | 91.48 | +9.69% | breaking out above the symmetrical triangle | 77.79 / 93.14 | Hormuz traffic. Anything above five daily crossings takes the bid out. |
OilCrude breaks its triangle as the Hormuz campaign escalates
WTI closed at 91.48, up about 9.7% on the week, the biggest weekly gain since July. The move started on Sunday when US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, and it accelerated on Tuesday when the US hit Iranian tankers for the first time. Crude touched 90 on 1 September and has not looked back.
On the daily chart this is a clean break. Oil had been compressing inside a symmetrical triangle since the spring: lower highs from the April spike above 115, higher lows from the winter base near 60. Price closed above the falling line on 1 September and has held above it for four sessions.
The supply picture is the whole story
Visible commodity crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell to about five vessels on Tuesday, against 23 the previous Wednesday. Roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil normally moves through that channel. When traffic drops that far, the market prices the risk that it stays down, regardless of what OPEC or US inventories say.
Peace comments from Russia and a possible South Korean naval contribution to the escort effort offered small relief late in the week. Neither changed the number of ships moving. Until crossings recover, dips get bought.
Why oil now matters for gold
This is the part most gold traders miss. Ninety-dollar crude feeds straight into headline inflation, which feeds straight into the Fed decision on the 16th and the ECB decision on Thursday. A hot CPI on Friday that is mostly energy is a different animal from a hot core print. The first is a reason for the Fed to wait; the second is a reason to hike.
So we read Friday's CPI in two lines: headline and core. If oil is doing the damage, gold can rally on a hot headline number. If core is doing it, gold sells.
Levels
The broken triangle line now runs through about 85.6 and is the retest level. As long as that holds on a closing basis, the breakout is alive and the April high near 118 is the next target on the chart. A close back under 85 would make the breakout a trap, which happens more often in oil than in any other market we trade.
Bottom line. WTI broke above its symmetrical triangle on 1 September on the Hormuz escalation and closed the week at 91.48, its best week since July.
The retest level is 85.6. Above it, the April high near 118 is the target. Watch daily strait crossings more than inventories.
Tuesday's note. Crude oil: the 85.6 retest and what Hormuz traffic says. Tuesday's crude update with the daily strait crossings. It is published after the close and appears on this page and on the weekly forecast page.
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Latest WTI crude coverage
- Sep 7 to 11 weekly setups: gold rejected at the channel top, oil breaks out, CPI lands Friday · 5 September 2026
The calendar that decides it
The Fed is in blackout from 5 September until the 16 September decision, so this week is pure data. Times are Rome time (CET). US releases are at 08:30 New York, which is 14:30 CET.
| Day | Time (CET) | Release | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7 | 01:50 | Japan Q2 GDP, revised | Feeds BoJ hike odds for the 18th. First mover for USD/JPY and DXY. |
| Tue 8 | all day | No tier-one data; Fed blackout | Oil headlines and Hormuz traffic run the tape. |
| Wed 9 | 03:30 | China CPI and PPI, August | Industrial-metal demand read for silver and copper. |
| Thu 10 | 14:15 | ECB rate decision (press conference 14:45) | 25 bp hike to 2.50% fully priced. Guidance decides EUR/USD. |
| Thu 10 | 14:30 | US PPI, August, and weekly jobless claims | First of the two inflation prints that decide the Fed. |
| Fri 11 | 08:00 | UK GDP, July | Sets sterling into the 17 September BoE meeting. |
| Fri 11 | 14:30 | US CPI, August | The print of the week. Headline was 3.5% on the year in July. Watch core versus energy. |
| Fri 11 | 16:00 | University of Michigan sentiment, preliminary | Inflation expectations component matters more than the headline. |
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Trading gold, FX, crude and crypto on margin carries a high level of risk and you can lose more than your deposit. Nothing on this page is a personal recommendation. Levels are taken from the daily chart at Friday's close and can be invalidated by a single print.