Forex weekly forecast, 7 to 11 Sep 2026: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY
By Emanuele Calcina · Updated 5 September 2026 · Prices are Friday closes · All weekly forecasts · This week's full article
The majors live here for the week of 7 to 11 Sep 2026. Friday closes: EUR/USD 1.1621 (-0.3%), GBP/USD 1.3517 (-0.6%), USD/JPY 156.22 (-1.9%). We do not send signals on these pairs; we read them because they set the dollar, and the dollar sets gold.
| Market | Friday close | Week | Daily chart | 20-day low / high | What decides the week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1621 | -0.30% | inside the descending channel | 1.1513 / 1.1712 | ECB Thursday. A 25 bp hike is priced; the press conference is the trade. |
| GBP/USD | 1.3517 | -0.59% | inside the descending channel | 1.3475 / 1.3675 | UK GDP Friday, then the BoE on the 17th. |
| USD/JPY | 156.22 | -1.95% | inside the ascending channel | 155.28 / 160.38 | Japan GDP Monday, BoJ on the 18th, intervention risk all week. |
EUR/USDEUR/USD slips before an ECB hike that everyone already expects
EUR/USD closed at 1.1621, down about 0.3% on the week. The pair drifted lower after payrolls and stayed inside the descending channel that has capped it since the January high near 1.20. The upper line of that channel now sits just under 1.17, and price tested it twice in late August without getting through.
The event this week is the ECB on Thursday. Eurozone inflation is back above 3%, and every one of the 65 economists in the latest Reuters poll expects a 25 basis point hike to 2.50%. Market pricing puts the odds near 99%. A move that certain is not a trade on its own. The press conference is.
Hike, then what
Nomura's base case is a hike on Thursday followed by a pause, with the risk skewed toward more. Futures price about a 40% chance of a further increase by December. If Lagarde leans into the oil-driven inflation risk, the euro can push through 1.17 even with the Fed leaning hawkish. If she frames this as one-and-done, the pair sells the fact.
Energy is the swing factor here too. Europe imports the oil that just went to 91 dollars. That is an inflation problem for the ECB and a growth problem at the same time, and the bank's communication has to cover both.
Levels
1.169 is the channel top and the level to beat. The August lows near 1.152 are the first support inside the channel, and the lower line runs near 1.124. Between the ECB on Thursday and US CPI on Friday, the pair has two chances to break out of a range that has held all summer.
Bottom line. EUR/USD is inside a descending channel with the top near 1.17. An ECB hike to 2.50% on Thursday is fully priced, so the reaction depends on guidance.
Hawkish guidance plus a cool US CPI is the combination that breaks 1.17. Anything else keeps the range.
GBP/USDSterling prints a lower high at the channel top with GDP and the BoE ahead
GBP/USD closed at 1.3517, down about 0.6% on the week. Cable ran from the late-June low near 1.315 to 1.3675 on 26 August, touched the upper line of the descending channel that has capped it since the January high near 1.385, and turned. That is a lower high in the same series as gold's. The channel top now runs near 1.366 and the floor near 1.31.
Governor Bailey said on 28 August that the UK is not yet seeing significant second-round inflation effects, and on Friday he added that policymakers have some discretion over how fast they return inflation to target. Neither comment is hawkish. The BoE meets on 17 September and the market is not expecting a move.
What moves the pound this week
July GDP prints Friday morning, a few hours before US CPI. The UK economy has been growing slowly and the pound has been trading more on rate differentials than on growth, so a small miss will not matter much. A large one would, because it would bring a BoE cut back into the conversation for the autumn.
Fiscal worries are the other weight. Bailey has been talking about long-term pressures on government debt, and gilt yields have followed US yields higher. That caps the pound on rallies even when the dollar is soft.
Levels
1.3475 is the 20-day low and the level a bounce needs to hold. 1.3675 is the August high and the channel line above it is near 1.366, so anything through 1.37 on a daily close breaks the structure. Below 1.34 the middle of the channel gives way and 1.31, the channel floor, comes into view.
Bottom line. GBP/USD printed a lower high at the top of its descending channel on 26 August and closed the week mid-channel at 1.3517.
UK GDP on Friday and US CPI a few hours later set the direction into the 17 September BoE meeting. 1.37 breaks the channel; 1.34 opens 1.31.
USD/JPYUSD/JPY drops to the channel floor as BoJ hike bets and intervention collide
USD/JPY closed at 156.22, down about 1.9% on the week, the largest weekly fall since the coordinated US-Japan intervention in early August. The yen touched 155.28 on Thursday, a one-month high, after hawkish comments from BoJ officials raised the odds of a hike at the 18 September meeting.
On the daily chart the pair is sitting right on the lower line of the rising channel that has carried it since the winter low near 152. Friday's bounce off 155.8 is a textbook channel-floor reaction. Whether it holds is a policy question, not a technical one.
Two forces pulling the same way
The BoJ has moved from a bank that talks about hiking to one that markets think will do it this month. That narrows the gap with US rates and takes the edge off the carry trade. On top of that, the finance ministry has already intervened once with US backing and has said it is ready to do so again. Nobody wants to be long USD/JPY at 160 when that happens.
Against that, the Fed hike trade is not dead. If PPI and CPI run hot, US yields rise and the pair rallies regardless of Tokyo. That is why Friday's bounce happened at all.
What it means for gold
A stronger yen weakens the dollar index more than any other single currency. If the channel floor breaks and the pair heads toward the August intervention lows, DXY loses its channel too, and that is the scenario where gold rallies even without a soft CPI. We watch USD/JPY on Monday morning, after Japan's GDP revision, for the first hint.
Levels
155.28 is Thursday's low and the line in the sand. A close below it opens the August lows near 152. On the upside 158 is the first resistance from the late-August consolidation, and the channel top runs near 164.5.
Bottom line. USD/JPY is on the floor of its rising channel near 155.8 after a 1.9% weekly drop driven by BoJ hike bets and intervention risk.
A close under 155.28 breaks the channel and weakens the dollar index with it. Hot US inflation data is the only thing that clearly saves the pair this week.
Weekday notes. The majors are covered in full every Saturday in the weekly forecast. During the week the notes rotate through the dollar index, crude, silver, bitcoin and gold; the pairs move with the dollar index note on Monday.
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Latest the majors coverage
- Sep 7 to 11 weekly setups: gold rejected at the channel top, oil breaks out, CPI lands Friday · 5 September 2026
The calendar that decides it
The Fed is in blackout from 5 September until the 16 September decision, so this week is pure data. Times are Rome time (CET). US releases are at 08:30 New York, which is 14:30 CET.
| Day | Time (CET) | Release | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7 | 01:50 | Japan Q2 GDP, revised | Feeds BoJ hike odds for the 18th. First mover for USD/JPY and DXY. |
| Tue 8 | all day | No tier-one data; Fed blackout | Oil headlines and Hormuz traffic run the tape. |
| Wed 9 | 03:30 | China CPI and PPI, August | Industrial-metal demand read for silver and copper. |
| Thu 10 | 14:15 | ECB rate decision (press conference 14:45) | 25 bp hike to 2.50% fully priced. Guidance decides EUR/USD. |
| Thu 10 | 14:30 | US PPI, August, and weekly jobless claims | First of the two inflation prints that decide the Fed. |
| Fri 11 | 08:00 | UK GDP, July | Sets sterling into the 17 September BoE meeting. |
| Fri 11 | 14:30 | US CPI, August | The print of the week. Headline was 3.5% on the year in July. Watch core versus energy. |
| Fri 11 | 16:00 | University of Michigan sentiment, preliminary | Inflation expectations component matters more than the headline. |
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