Bitcoin weekly forecast, 7 to 11 Sep 2026: Bitcoin holds its breakout on the biggest ETF day since January
By Emanuele Calcina · Updated 5 September 2026 · Prices are Friday closes · All weekly forecasts · This week's full article
Here is where we keep bitcoin for the week of 7 to 11 Sep 2026: the chart we trade against, the levels we use and the print that can change our mind. Friday close 79,651, +1.4% on the week. The bitcoin note for Thursday is added to this page after the close.
| Market | Friday close | Week | Daily chart | 20-day low / high | What decides the week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 79,651 | +1.40% | breaking out above the descending channel | 62,687 / 82,262 | Whether ETF inflows keep running after the $731 million day. |
BitcoinBitcoin holds its breakout on the biggest ETF day since January
Bitcoin is trading near 79,700 as we write, after holding above 81,000 for most of Friday. It broke above a five-month descending channel on 21 August with one of the largest daily candles of the year, and it has spent two weeks consolidating above the broken line instead of falling back through it. That is what a real breakout looks like.
The money is visible. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in about 731 million dollars on 3 September, the largest single-day inflow since 14 January, and another 175 million on Friday. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for 117 million of Friday's total.
Why Waller mattered more for bitcoin than for gold
Bitcoin is a liquidity asset first. When a Fed governor says he could hold rates, that is a direct input into the funding cost of leveraged crypto positions, and the market treats it that way. Thursday's move was 5% in a day. Gold managed 2% on the same headline.
The flip side is that bitcoin will also react harder to a hot CPI. It does not have gold's central-bank bid underneath it. If the Fed narrative swings back to a hike on Friday, the 21 August breakout candle is where support should be found, roughly 73,000 to 74,000.
How this fits our book
We do not send bitcoin signals, so this section is for context. What we watch is the correlation. Through August bitcoin and gold moved together on Fed headlines; through the Hormuz escalation they diverged, with gold catching a safe-haven bid and bitcoin trading as risk.
If both rally on Friday's CPI, the market is pricing a softer Fed and the gold channel top is in play. If bitcoin rallies alone, it is a liquidity story that says nothing about gold.
Bottom line. Bitcoin broke a five-month descending channel on 21 August and has held above it for two weeks, with record-pace ETF inflows behind the move.
Support is the breakout zone near 73,000 to 74,000. A hot CPI tests it; a cool one likely sends price toward the spring high above 82,000.
Thursday's note. Bitcoin into US PPI: is the ETF bid still there?. Thursday's bitcoin update with the day's ETF flow numbers. It is published after the close and appears on this page and on the weekly forecast page.
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- Sep 7 to 11 weekly setups: gold rejected at the channel top, oil breaks out, CPI lands Friday · 5 September 2026
The calendar that decides it
The Fed is in blackout from 5 September until the 16 September decision, so this week is pure data. Times are Rome time (CET). US releases are at 08:30 New York, which is 14:30 CET.
| Day | Time (CET) | Release | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7 | 01:50 | Japan Q2 GDP, revised | Feeds BoJ hike odds for the 18th. First mover for USD/JPY and DXY. |
| Tue 8 | all day | No tier-one data; Fed blackout | Oil headlines and Hormuz traffic run the tape. |
| Wed 9 | 03:30 | China CPI and PPI, August | Industrial-metal demand read for silver and copper. |
| Thu 10 | 14:15 | ECB rate decision (press conference 14:45) | 25 bp hike to 2.50% fully priced. Guidance decides EUR/USD. |
| Thu 10 | 14:30 | US PPI, August, and weekly jobless claims | First of the two inflation prints that decide the Fed. |
| Fri 11 | 08:00 | UK GDP, July | Sets sterling into the 17 September BoE meeting. |
| Fri 11 | 14:30 | US CPI, August | The print of the week. Headline was 3.5% on the year in July. Watch core versus energy. |
| Fri 11 | 16:00 | University of Michigan sentiment, preliminary | Inflation expectations component matters more than the headline. |
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Trading gold, FX, crude and crypto on margin carries a high level of risk and you can lose more than your deposit. Nothing on this page is a personal recommendation. Levels are taken from the daily chart at Friday's close and can be invalidated by a single print.