US Dollar Index weekly forecast, 7 to 11 Sep 2026: The dollar index sits on the floor of its rising channel with the Fed silent
By Emanuele Calcina · Updated 5 September 2026 · Prices are Friday closes · All weekly forecasts · This week's full article
Here is where we keep the dollar index for the week of 7 to 11 Sep 2026: the chart we trade against, the levels we use and the print that can change our mind. Friday close 99.16, -0.5% on the week. The us dollar index note for Monday is added to this page after the close.
| Market | Friday close | Week | Daily chart | 20-day low / high | What decides the week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index | 99.16 | -0.54% | inside the ascending channel | 98.56 / 100.08 | Whether the 99 handle holds through CPI with the Fed silent. |
DXYThe dollar index sits on the floor of its rising channel with the Fed silent
DXY closed at 99.16, down about half a percent on the week, and the whole decline came from the yen. The index bounced on payrolls, faded within hours, and ended near the bottom of a rising channel that has been in place since the February low near 96.
That is an unusual place for the dollar to be while hike odds are rising. It tells you the market has already priced most of the Fed story and is now trading the other side of every pair: a BoJ that may hike on the 18th and an ECB that is almost certain to hike on Thursday.
Why strong data did not lift the dollar
Friday's move up in the index lasted about as long as the move up in yields. Once the 10-year gave back part of its spike, the dollar followed. Markets had leaned toward a hike as recently as Wednesday, at close to 65%, before Waller talked it down to a coin flip. Payrolls only restored what had been lost.
Meanwhile the yen jumped more than 2% on Thursday to 155.28, a one-month high, on rising BoJ hike bets and suspected intervention. The yen carries about 14% of the index. A 2% yen move is worth roughly 0.3 points of DXY on its own, which is most of the week's decline.
What we watch for gold
For our purposes DXY is a filter. Gold rarely sustains a rally while the dollar index is making higher highs, and it rarely sustains a selloff while the index is losing its channel. The lower line of the channel runs through about 98.7. A daily close below that with gold still inside its own channel would be the first real divergence in months.
The 99 handle held every test in August. If it holds again through CPI, the dollar is fine and gold has to do the work on its own. If it breaks, the burden shifts.
Bottom line. DXY is at the lower edge of a rising channel around 98.7 to 99, held there by yen strength rather than by anything the Fed said.
A close under 98.7 is dollar-negative and takes pressure off gold. A hold through Friday keeps the Fed story in charge.
Monday's note. Dollar index after Japan's GDP: does the 99 floor hold?. Monday's read on DXY once the yen has reacted to the GDP revision. It is published after the close and appears on this page and on the weekly forecast page.
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Latest US Dollar Index coverage
- Sep 7 to 11 weekly setups: gold rejected at the channel top, oil breaks out, CPI lands Friday · 5 September 2026
The calendar that decides it
The Fed is in blackout from 5 September until the 16 September decision, so this week is pure data. Times are Rome time (CET). US releases are at 08:30 New York, which is 14:30 CET.
| Day | Time (CET) | Release | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7 | 01:50 | Japan Q2 GDP, revised | Feeds BoJ hike odds for the 18th. First mover for USD/JPY and DXY. |
| Tue 8 | all day | No tier-one data; Fed blackout | Oil headlines and Hormuz traffic run the tape. |
| Wed 9 | 03:30 | China CPI and PPI, August | Industrial-metal demand read for silver and copper. |
| Thu 10 | 14:15 | ECB rate decision (press conference 14:45) | 25 bp hike to 2.50% fully priced. Guidance decides EUR/USD. |
| Thu 10 | 14:30 | US PPI, August, and weekly jobless claims | First of the two inflation prints that decide the Fed. |
| Fri 11 | 08:00 | UK GDP, July | Sets sterling into the 17 September BoE meeting. |
| Fri 11 | 14:30 | US CPI, August | The print of the week. Headline was 3.5% on the year in July. Watch core versus energy. |
| Fri 11 | 16:00 | University of Michigan sentiment, preliminary | Inflation expectations component matters more than the headline. |
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Trading gold, FX, crude and crypto on margin carries a high level of risk and you can lose more than your deposit. Nothing on this page is a personal recommendation. Levels are taken from the daily chart at Friday's close and can be invalidated by a single print.