Gold weekly forecast, 7 to 11 Sep 2026: Gold gives back August's top after payrolls revive the hike trade
By Emanuele Calcina · Updated 5 September 2026 · Prices are Friday closes · All weekly forecasts · This week's full article
Here is where we keep gold for the week of 7 to 11 Sep 2026: the chart we trade against, the levels we use and the print that can change our mind. Friday close 4,429.80, -1.1% on the week. The gold note for Friday is added to this page after the close.
| Market | Friday close | Week | Daily chart | 20-day low / high | What decides the week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,429.80 | -1.08% | inside the descending channel | 4,292.20 / 4,670.90 | PPI Thursday, CPI Friday. A hot pair of prints keeps the channel top intact. |
GoldGold gives back August's top after payrolls revive the hike trade
Gold closed the week at 4,429.80 on the front-month contract, down about 1.1%, after a strong US employment report put a September rate hike back on the table. Spot traded through 4,500 on Thursday when Governor Waller said he could support holding rates. Friday's print reversed that in about forty minutes.
On the daily chart the story is simpler than the headlines. Gold has been inside a descending channel since the February spike. The August rally ran straight into the upper line around 4,670, printed a lower high, and turned down. Friday's close is back inside the channel, roughly 180 dollars below the top and well above the 4,000 area where the July lows sit.
What the jobs report actually changed
The headline was 162,000 new jobs against 53,000 expected. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month and 3.1% on the year, which is not the kind of wage growth that scares the Fed on its own. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%. What moved gold was the repricing: market-implied odds of a hike at the September meeting went from roughly 52% to about 59% within the hour.
Higher hike odds mean a higher real yield on cash, and gold pays nothing. That is the whole mechanism. It is also why the reaction faded through the afternoon. The 10-year yield had already hit its highest level since November 2023 earlier in the week and could not add much more on one print.
Waller versus Warsh
Chair Warsh used Jackson Hole to keep a hike on the table. Waller, on Wednesday, said his next vote would be heavily influenced by August inflation and that he would be willing to hold if progress toward 2% continued. Those two positions are now the entire argument, and the data on Thursday and Friday will settle it.
We are not going to guess the print. What we can say is that gold has spent five months making lower highs, and one strong labour report does not break that. Nor does one soft CPI. The channel top near 4,610 to 4,650 is the level that decides whether August was a bottom or a bounce.
How we are trading it
Our desk stays with the channel until price closes above it on the daily. Inside the channel we sell rallies into the upper third and buy dips toward the lower third, with stops outside the lines. Right now price sits in the middle, which is the worst place to start a trade, so we wait for the market to come to a level.
A close above 4,650 flips us to buying pullbacks. A break of 4,300 puts the July base at 4,000 back in play. Both of those are more likely to happen on Friday than on any other day, so we keep size small until CPI has printed.
Bottom line. Gold is inside a descending channel that has held since February, and the August rally was rejected at its top. Payrolls raised September hike odds to about 59%, which is why the week ended lower.
PPI on Thursday and CPI on Friday decide the next leg. Above 4,650 the channel is broken. Below 4,300 the July lows near 4,000 come back into view.
Friday's note. Gold after CPI: channel top or July lows. Friday's gold reaction piece, published after the New York close. It is published after the close and appears on this page and on the weekly forecast page.
Trading these levels this week?
VIP members get the entry, stop and two targets for each gold setup before the release, plus the live level map on CPI day. One signal a day is free.
Latest Gold coverage
- Sep 7 to 11 weekly setups: gold rejected at the channel top, oil breaks out, CPI lands Friday · 5 September 2026
The calendar that decides it
The Fed is in blackout from 5 September until the 16 September decision, so this week is pure data. Times are Rome time (CET). US releases are at 08:30 New York, which is 14:30 CET.
| Day | Time (CET) | Release | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7 | 01:50 | Japan Q2 GDP, revised | Feeds BoJ hike odds for the 18th. First mover for USD/JPY and DXY. |
| Tue 8 | all day | No tier-one data; Fed blackout | Oil headlines and Hormuz traffic run the tape. |
| Wed 9 | 03:30 | China CPI and PPI, August | Industrial-metal demand read for silver and copper. |
| Thu 10 | 14:15 | ECB rate decision (press conference 14:45) | 25 bp hike to 2.50% fully priced. Guidance decides EUR/USD. |
| Thu 10 | 14:30 | US PPI, August, and weekly jobless claims | First of the two inflation prints that decide the Fed. |
| Fri 11 | 08:00 | UK GDP, July | Sets sterling into the 17 September BoE meeting. |
| Fri 11 | 14:30 | US CPI, August | The print of the week. Headline was 3.5% on the year in July. Watch core versus energy. |
| Fri 11 | 16:00 | University of Michigan sentiment, preliminary | Inflation expectations component matters more than the headline. |
Get the levels before the prints, not after
Every setup above becomes a signal with entry, stop and targets in the VIP channel, sent before the release. Verified track record on Myfxbook, 4K+ traders in the community.
Keep reading
Trading gold, FX, crude and crypto on margin carries a high level of risk and you can lose more than your deposit. Nothing on this page is a personal recommendation. Levels are taken from the daily chart at Friday's close and can be invalidated by a single print.