📉 Gold Confronts 23.6% Fibo Resistance Ahead of US CPI

calendar_today Jul 15, 2025

Gold price analysis showing Fibonacci resistance and automated bot trading CTA.

Gold prices started the week under pressure after failing to sustain above a critical technical level. XAU/USD briefly rallied early Monday but reversed after hitting the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of April’s record rally at $3,377.

This pullback comes ahead of an action-packed week for global markets as traders anticipate key data, geopolitical updates, and US inflation figures.

🔍 XAU/USD Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Resistance:
- 23.6% Fibonacci at $3,377
- Psychological barrier at $3,400
- Static resistance at $3,440
Support:
- 21-day SMA near $3,341
- 50-day SMA at $3,326
- 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3,297

The 14-day RSI remains at 54.20, signaling room for upside despite the pullback. If bulls reclaim $3,377 on a daily close, a new push toward $3,400 and $3,440 could unfold. Conversely, a sustained break below $3,341 opens the door to $3,297.

🌍 Fundamental Outlook: US CPI, Trade Tensions, and Risk Factors

Gold’s recent volatility is tied to renewed trade war fears and shifting monetary expectations:

Trump’s tariff threats: A proposed 30% tariff on EU and Mexican imports sparked initial safe-haven demand.
EU response: President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed a delay in countermeasures until August 1, easing immediate fears.
US Dollar rebound: Optimism over negotiations fueled a USD recovery, pressuring gold.
Bond yields: A pause in Treasury yield gains offered some support, but risk remains tilted.

Key Events This Week:

US CPI Data (Tuesday): Critical for Fed rate cut bets.
China GDP Release: A key gauge of global growth momentum.
Geopolitical Risk: Ongoing tensions over tariffs, Ukraine defense aid, and Trump’s pending announcement on Russia.

Markets currently price in 50 bps of Fed cuts in 2025, with a 60% chance of a September move (CME FedWatch Tool).

📈 Gold Trading Strategy for the Week Ahead

Traders should monitor $3,377 for breakout confirmation. A close above it strengthens the bullish case toward $3,400. Failure to reclaim it could trigger another dip toward $3,326 and the 38.2% Fibo at $3,297.

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🏁 Final Word: Stay Ahead of the Market

Gold’s path this week depends on US CPI and trade developments. Whether the metal rallies toward $3,400 or dips below key support, precision is everything. Use automated trading to stay consistent and eliminate emotional errors.