Gold Price Pulls Back at 23.6% Fibo Ahead of US CPI

calendar_today Jul 14, 2025

🚀 Gold Price Pulls Back as Key Economic Data Looms

Gold (XAU/USD) started the week with a failed attempt to break above $3,377, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its record rally in April. Despite a three-day recovery trend, Monday's early trading session saw renewed selling pressure as market participants await key data releases, including US CPI and China GDP.

This report analyzes the technical setup and macroeconomic catalysts likely to drive gold price action in the coming days.

📊 Technical Overview: XAU/USD Stuck Below $3,377

The rejection at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement has temporarily stalled the bullish momentum in XAU/USD:

The 14-day RSI holds above 50, currently at 54.20, signaling a moderately bullish trend.
The 21-day SMA at $3,341 is the immediate support zone.
A breakdown below that level exposes the 50-day SMA at $3,326 and the 38.2% Fibo retracement at $3,297.

Should bulls regain control and manage a daily close above $3,377, further upside could follow, targeting $3,400 and $3,440.

🌐 Macro Fundamentals: Inflation, Trade War Risks, and Fed Outlook

Geopolitical and economic narratives are dictating near-term direction:

Former President Trump’s threat of a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican imports reignited global trade tensions.
Early safe-haven flows into gold faded after diplomatic reassurances from EU officials.
The US Dollar recovered some ground, adding downside pressure to gold.
US Treasury yields have paused, but geopolitical instability keeps risk sentiment fragile.

Key Events to Watch:

US CPI (Tuesday): Will offer clues about inflation trajectory and potential Fed rate cuts.
China Q2 GDP: Crucial for global risk appetite and gold as a hedge against macro risk.
US Earnings Season: Expected to add volatility across markets.
Geopolitical Updates: Trump’s Russia stance and Ukraine support announcement could trigger market reactions.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, markets currently price in 50 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, with a 60% probability of a cut as early as September.

🔍 XAU/USD Outlook: Key Levels to Watch This Week

Resistance: $3,377 (23.6% Fibo), $3,400 (psychological level), $3,440 (static resistance)
Support: $3,341 (21-day SMA), $3,326 (50-day SMA), $3,297 (38.2% Fibo)

The bullish case hinges on a daily close above $3,377, which could signal a continuation toward fresh multi-week highs. A rejection, however, opens the door for a deeper correction back to $3,297.

Overall sentiment remains cautiously bullish unless US CPI surprises to the upside or geopolitical calm persists, strengthening the US Dollar further.

🏁 Conclusion: Trade Gold Like a Sniper – Not a Gambler

Gold is facing a pivotal week, and every candle counts. Whether price breaks above the 23.6% Fibo resistance or dips back to key support, the opportunity to profit is real — but only if you have a plan.

🚫 No more guesswork.
✅ No more emotional trades.
🔥 It's time to trade smart, with confidence and structure.