Weekly forecast · 5 to 9 Oct 2026

Oct 5 to 9 weekly setups: gold drops 3.43%, FOMC minutes Wednesday, dollar firm across FX

By Emanuele Calcina · Published 3 October 2026 · Prices are Friday closes, pulled 3 October 2026 · All weekly forecasts

Gold fell 3.43% last week. It opened at 4259.98, tagged the high at 4260.61, then sold off to a low of 4110.59 before closing at 4135.81. High bond yields kept buyers on the defensive into the payrolls print [h6][h3].

The Oct 5 to 9 week is thinner on top-tier data than the one that just passed. The pieces that matter are ISM services Monday at 10:00 AM ET, the FOMC minutes Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET, jobless claims Thursday at 8:30 AM ET and Michigan consumer sentiment Friday at 10:00 AM ET, with Fed speakers scattered through the middle. Gold currently trades at 4141.80, just above where it closed. Every market below gets last week's open, high, low and close, its own calendar for the week and the levels that matter, so you can follow each one live.

The week at a glance

Closes are last week's, 28 to 2 October: CoinGecko daily closes at 00:00 UTC; Dukascopy 1-minute bid candles; ECB reference rates via Frankfurter, one close per day. FX rates are one reference close per day, so the weekly high and low are the highest and lowest daily closes, not intraday extremes. The week-ahead times are New York time (ET).

GoldGold slides into a quiet calendar with last week's low in play

Gold opened the week at 4259.98 and closed at 4135.81, a 3.43% drop that erased the prior week's highs and left price near the bottom of its range. Energy costs did the damage. A softer inflation print barely registered (Seeking Alpha), and a 10-year yield near 5.34% kept buyers pinned before the jobs report (FXEmpire).

What moved it

The jobs report was billed as the key to gold's next big move (FXStreet), and the metal stayed heavy going in while StoneX framed the slide as a 12.4% plunge toward major support (StoneX). High yields kept the bulls on defense (FXEmpire). The channel has pointed lower for weeks, and last week price broke to a fresh low.

The week ahead

No payrolls this week. The read leans on Fed talk and the minutes instead.

Levels

Last week's high sits at 4260.61, with the open just under it at 4259.98, and both stand above the current 4141.80. Last week's low at 4110.59 is the floor. The 4135.81 close sits just under where gold trades now.

A push back through last week's high would say the selloff has run its course for now. Break the low and the door opens. That is where the week turns.

EUR/USDEUR/USD closes on its low as the dollar keeps the upper hand

One-way traffic. EUR/USD started at 1.1378, which was also the high, and bled down to close at 1.1225, a 1.56% loss that dragged it to the week's low with no bounce to show. A firmer dollar did most of the work (investingLive).

What moved it

The pair is grinding into fresh lows while the dollar sets the pace (Barchart.com). German inflation ran hotter than expected and gave the euro a quick pop (XTB.com), but that faded fast and the trend stayed against it into the weekend. StoneX puts the decline close to major yearly support (StoneX).

The week ahead

Both sides report. US data and the Fed minutes run up against euro-area numbers.

Levels

Last week's high at 1.1378 is the first line. It doubles as the open, since price started there and never looked back. Last week's low at 1.1225 is also the close, so the pair finished sitting on its floor.

A close back above last week's high would say the down run has paused. Lose the low and the next leg lower is live.

GBP/USDGBP/USD fades its bounce and settles back on last week's low

Sterling went almost nowhere. Down just 0.38% on the week, it opened at 1.3263, stretched to a 1.3286 high, then slid back to close on the low at 1.3201, where the bounce met the September downtrend and stalled (StoneX).

What moved it

The pound is still fighting a bearish read below the mid-1.32s (FXStreet). A soft dollar day gave it a lift (TradingKey). But the close on the low tells you buyers couldn't hold the ground, and Elliott Wave work points to more two-way risk into this week (LiteFinance).

The week ahead

The UK gets a say this week. Housing and a construction read meet the US calendar.

Levels

Last week's high at 1.3286 is the first ceiling, with the open at 1.3263 just beneath it. Last week's low at 1.3201 is also the close. Cable ended the week pinned to its floor.

Reclaim last week's high and the bounce earns some trust. Break the low and the September downtrend has the wheel again.

USD/JPYUSD/JPY stalls near last week's high as intervention worry meets dollar strength

For all the intervention chatter, dollar-yen barely budged, up 0.05%. It ran from the 156.88 open to a 157.98 high and closed at 157.67, so dollar strength and intervention worry canceled each other out and neither side could claim the week (FOREX.com). Nothing settled.

What moved it

The pair is still digesting a 4% climb that ran into the downtrend left by past intervention (StoneX). A 50-day average has capped the recovery just under last week's high (FXStreet). Officials keep watching. That is why rallies stall before they get going.

The week ahead

Both economies report. Japan brings its own data and a BoJ speech, and the US side carries the minutes and sentiment.

Levels

Last week's high at 157.98 is the line to watch, the level a 50-day average has been guarding [h7]. Last week's low at 156.88 is also the open. The floor and the week's starting point line up.

Clear last week's high and the rally gets its next leg [h5]. Lose the low and the intervention crowd gets what it wants.

USD/CADUSD/CAD closes near last week's high with Canada jobs in play

USD/CAD climbed again. The pair opened at 1.4166 and closed the week at 1.424, a +0.69% gain that dragged price back into the same July zone buyers had defended all year long (StoneX) (Continuum Economics). The trend held up (investingLive).

What moved it

Policy runs this pair. The Fed still talks like it wants rates higher, the Bank of Canada has gone quiet, and firmer oil barely moved the loonie. But the close was not clean, because a shooting star printed near the top as a warning on the September run (Investing.com), and Scotiabank still pegs fair value below where the market trades (FXStreet).

The week ahead

Both sides get tested. The US calendar is thick, and Canada caps the week with jobs.

Levels

Last week's high at 1.4246 is the line to beat, with the close at 1.424 parked right beneath it. Last week's low at 1.4166, which was also the open, is the first floor.

Break above 1.4246 and the year-high trend stays alive. Lose 1.4166 and that shooting star starts to mean something [h5].

USD/CHFUSD/CHF reverses off the highs as the franc bids for safety

The franc did the real work last week. USD/CHF opened at 0.8318, tagged 0.8353, then slid to close right on its low at 0.8266 for a -0.21% week. A franc bid flipped it (StoneX) (investingLive).

What moved it

The net change was tiny. The shape was not: price turned off the year's highs (Continuum Economics) as safe-haven buyers came back to the franc during a rough stretch in bonds (StoneX). Now the real question is whether US data pulls the dollar back toward those highs or the franc holds the upper hand (TradingKey).

The week ahead

A heavy US schedule meets a couple of Swiss prints.

Levels

Last week's high at 0.8353 caps the pair, with the open at 0.8318 the first step up. Last week's low at 0.8266 is support, and that is also where the week closed.

Hold 0.8266 and the reversal can keep running the franc's way. Push back above 0.8353 and the year-high story is live again [h5].

AUD/USDAUD/USD slides to last week's low as US yields beat the RBA

Down from the first bell. AUD/USD opened at its high of 0.7024 and never looked back, then closed on the low at 0.6939 for a -1.29% week, the weakest the Aussie has traded since early July (investingLive). Ugly week.

What moved it

Here is the part that stings for Aussie bulls. The RBA hiked and left the door open to more (Barchart.com), yet the pair still bled, because US yields around five percent pulled the money the other way (TradingView). Four straight down weeks, and the chart now sits on the trendline traders keep watching (FOREX.com).

The week ahead

The Aussie finally gets local data, but the US still runs the show.

Levels

Last week's high at 0.7024, which was also the open, is the level to beat. Last week's low at 0.6939 is support, and the week closed right there.

Lose 0.6939 and the down move likely extends. Reclaim 0.7024 and the sellers finally lose their grip [h5].

NZD/USDNZD/USD extends its losing run into a heavy US data week

Another red week for the kiwi, and a notable one. NZD/USD opened at 0.5669, which was also the high, then closed on the low at 0.5612 for a -1.04% drop that put the pair on ground it had not seen since November 2025 (FXStreet). Weak close.

What moved it

The pressure keeps stacking up. Six weeks in the red now, with oil costs and the election both leaning on the kiwi (Bloomberg.com), and the market tilting toward RBNZ tightening on top of that (vtmarkets.com). The real weight sits across the Pacific, where US payrolls and a line of data wait for this pair (FOREX.com).

The week ahead

No local data of note, so the dollar sets the tone.

Levels

Last week's high at 0.5669, which was also the open, is the first ceiling. Last week's low at 0.5612 is support, and that is where the week closed.

Hold 0.5612 and the kiwi gets a chance to steady. Lose it and the selling likely stretches further [h3].

GBP/JPYGBP/JPY leaks lower as intervention talk keeps the yen bid

The pair opened at 208.07 and closed at 208.14, down 0.34% from the prior week's 208.84. Tiny net change. But that flat number hides a week when sterling slipped against a yen traders kept buying as intervention chatter grew louder and budget worries sat on the pound (vtmarkets.com).

What moved it

The yen found a bid for one reason. Officials keep reminding everyone they could step in if moves turn disorderly (FOREX.com). Talk that the US and Japan share concern over yen weakness put joint action back on the table, and when a currency looks like a target for official support, traders think twice before selling it (vtmarkets.com).

The week ahead

The calendar leans Japanese. The yen side holds the risk, so watch Ueda and the data on how stretched the Japanese consumer really is.

Levels

Last week's high at 209.07 is the line up top, the level that rejected the pound before it rolled over [h6]. Last week's low at 208.07 was also the open. A daily close back under it tells you sellers have taken control.

Break and hold above last week's high at 209.07 and the intervention fear fades. Lose last week's low at 208.07 and the yen bid is winning.

EUR/GBPEUR/GBP sold off all week and the ECB accounts loom next

This one didn't mess around. EUR/GBP opened at 0.8579, which was also the high, and closed right on the low at 0.8503, down 1.17% from the prior week's 0.8604. The euro lost ground as oil strength and Bank of England talk pushed the pair lower (tradingpedia.com).

What moved it

The read here runs through sterling more than the euro. Traders have been pricing a firmer Bank of England and backing the pound, and the chart kept its bearish path (Economies.com). German households are under real strain, but that has weighed on the euro far less than UK rate expectations have lifted the pound (Continuum Economics).

The week ahead

Both sides get data. The euro finally gets its own say later in the week.

Levels

Last week's high at 0.8579 is also the open, so bulls have to reclaim that before anything changes. Last week's low at 0.8503 is also the close, so sellers go in sitting right on the lows.

A push back above last week's high at 0.8579 would be the first real sign the selling is finished. Hold under last week's low at 0.8503 and the bearish path stays live [h3].

BitcoinBitcoin closes the week near its highs with the Fed minutes ahead

Quiet week, strong finish. Bitcoin opened at 83479, which was also the low, ran up to 84842, and closed at 84625 for a 0.21% gain on the prior week's 84449. It held a September gain even as bond yields pushed higher (CoinDesk), helped by a cooler inflation print (CryptoRank).

What moved it

The real story is supply against demand. Spot ETF buying keeps a steady bid under the market while some longer-term holders use the rally to lock in gains and sell into it (Investing.com). One Wall Street name flipped bullish with a bold 2027 call, and the chatter about where this cycle goes next has only gotten louder (Forbes).

The week ahead

A Fed-heavy week. Real data behind it, and risk assets like this one will trade the rate read first and ask questions later.

Levels

Last week's high at 84842 is the first ceiling, with the close at 84625 sitting just under it. Last week's low at 83479 is also the open, the shelf sellers would need to crack.

Clear last week's high at 84842 and buyers have shown the demand is there. Lose last week's low at 83479 and profit-takers have the upper hand.

The calendar that decides it

Every high and medium impact release for 5 to 9 October 2026, in New York time. High impact rows are in bold. Forecast and previous are the consensus figures published with the calendar.

Last week handed gold a 3.43% drop and left the price near 4141.80, so the lines from last week's range are the ones worth watching into Wednesday's minutes. We will track each market against its own open, high, low and close as the week trades. Follow the levels with us live.

Questions traders asked us this week

Trading gold, FX and crypto on margin carries a high level of risk and you can lose more than your deposit. Nothing on this page is a personal recommendation. Levels are last week's high, low and close and can be invalidated by a single print.