Weekly forecast · 28 Sep to 2 Oct 2026

Sep 28 to Oct 2 weekly setups: Core PCE Wednesday, payrolls Friday, RBA hike Tuesday

By Emanuele Calcina · Published 26 September 2026 · Prices are Friday closes, pulled 26 September 2026 · All weekly forecasts

Gold shed 2.14% last week and settled at 4282.81, down from an open of 4372.26. It stabbed as low as 4243.93 before closing off the floor, and it trades near 4286.20 now. That is the second down week in a row [h1], and the calendar ahead is loaded.

The week is a US data gauntlet. Core PCE lands Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET, forecast 0.3% against 0.2%, and ISM Manufacturing follows Thursday at 10:00 AM ET. Payrolls close it Friday at 8:30 AM ET, forecast 100 after 162, and the RBA decides Tuesday at 12:30 AM ET with a move to 4.6% from 4.35%. Every market below gets last week's open, high, low and close, plus its own calendar and levels.

The week at a glance

Closes are last week's, 21 to 25 September: CoinGecko daily closes at 00:00 UTC; Dukascopy 1-minute bid candles; ECB reference rates via Frankfurter, one close per day. FX rates are one reference close per day, so the weekly high and low are the highest and lowest daily closes, not intraday extremes. The week-ahead times are New York time (ET).

GoldGold gives back the week and sits on last week's close before PCE

Gold opened at 4372.26 and closed at 4282.81, a 2.14% drop that stacks a second straight down week on top of the first and puts the August breakout squarely under the microscope (stonex.com). Two weeks lower. The Fed decision kept the metal pinned, and current rate settings still lean against any clean bounce from here (FOREX.com).

What moved it

The read has flipped. What some framed as a counter-trend rally with room higher (FXEmpire) has turned into fresh selling as rate hikes push the breakout further out of reach (FXEmpire). Geopolitics is back in the mix, and that tends to put a floor under safe-haven buying even on red weeks (FXStreet). So the tape sits between a firm dollar and a nervous world.

The week ahead

Heavy week. The calendar front-loads inflation and jobs, and gold will trade every single line of it.

Levels

Last week's high sits at 4383.16, with the open at 4372.26 just beneath it, and both stand above the current 4286.20. Last week's low is 4243.93. The close at 4282.81 sits just under the current price.

Lose 4243.93 and the slide extends. Reclaim 4372.26 and the pressure lifts off the sellers.

EUR/USDEUR/USD leaks lower into the Fed week with 1.1367 the line to watch

The euro spent the week on the defensive, opening at 1.1490 and closing at 1.1403 for a 0.50% loss as strong US data lifted the dollar and dragged the pair lower alongside the pound (Yahoo Finance). Solid PMI numbers could not turn it (XTB.com). Price pressed its lows and stayed pinned.

What moved it

Under the surface, the German to US yield spread broke down and pulled a key support out from under the euro (Barchart.com). The Fed's path does the heavy lifting here, keeping the dollar bid while the euro hunts, so far without luck, for any real reason to rally (Yahoo Finance UK). A ten-week low says it plainly (TradingView).

The week ahead

Both sides fire this week. Euro inflation Friday, then the US jobs report right behind it.

Levels

Last week's high and open share one spot at 1.1490, the ceiling that capped every session. Last week's low is 1.1367. The close at 1.1403 sits just above it.

Break 1.1367 and the door opens to fresh lows. Back above 1.1490 and the sellers lose their grip.

GBP/USDGBP/USD slides as the dollar surge overpowers a good retail print

Sterling handed back its early bounce, opening at 1.3395 and closing at 1.3252, down 0.69% on the week. Retail sales helped, briefly. A better UK print lifted the pound at the start, but the dollar surged as bonds sold off, and Sterling simply kept leaking through to the close as sellers leaned on every bounce (stonex.com) (DailyForex).

What moved it

The through-line is a dollar markets want to own while the pound drifts to the weak side of the split (Yahoo Finance UK). Demand at home looked fine. But one good report does not repair an economy this exposed to energy costs, and the pound is now nearing long-term support with its rising channel under a real test (FXStreet) (TradingView).

The week ahead

UK data is thin. The dollar half of the pair carries the whole week, from mortgage approvals Tuesday to the payrolls print that closes it out on Friday.

Levels

Last week's high and open both sit at 1.3395, the level sellers defended all week long. Last week's low is 1.3220. The close at 1.3252 sits just above it.

Break 1.3220 and the slide has room. Push back through 1.3395 and the pressure eases off.

USD/JPYUSD/JPY holds its range as the yen fails to hold a rate-hike bid

This one barely budged. USD/JPY opened at 157.27 and closed at 157.59, off just 0.19% on the week, after a spike to 158.85 that could not hold and a 4% run that crashed straight into the old post-intervention downtrend (FOREX.com).

What moved it

The pair is stuck between the US calendar and the risk that Japan's finance ministry steps in (stonex.com). The yen even tried a counterattack late in the week, which is exactly why the range held instead of breaking cleanly higher (Investing.com). Traders are asking a bigger question now. Are central bank expectations starting to shift (TradingKey)?

The week ahead

Japan reports late in the US day. So the yen side of this pair only wakes up well after the New York close, which changes how the week actually trades.

Levels

Last week's high is 158.85, well clear of the open at 157.27 and the close at 157.59. Last week's low is 157.18. That sits just under both the open and the close.

Push through 158.85 and the yen is back on defense. Drop under 157.18 and the counterattack has legs.

USD/CADUSD/CAD closes at its high with last week's 1.4143 in play

USD/CAD opened at 1.4004 and closed the week glued to its high of 1.4143, a 0.95% gain with no doubt about who ran it. US rates took over (stonex.com). By Friday the pair had pushed into topside resistance, where sellers finally showed up to lean against the run (investinglive.com).

What moved it

Six days up into a level buyers have struggled with before (stonex.com). Recovering oil normally props the loonie up, yet the Canadian dollar has been short of real support anyway, which is why the rally kept climbing even as crude tried to help (FOREX.com). Does the rate story keep pulling, or does the loonie dig in?

The week ahead

Heavy US calendar on one side. Canada's own growth check on the other.

Levels

Last week's high at 1.4143 is also the close, so the pair opens the week sitting right on resistance. Last week's low at 1.4004 lines up with the open, the floor of the entire range.

Clear 1.4143 and the break has more to give. Lose 1.4004 and the first real crack in the rally shows.

USD/CHFUSD/CHF grinds to fresh highs with 0.8283 the line to beat

Another week, another push higher, and the franc pair shut the door right at the top. Price ran from a 0.8214 open to 0.8283 at the close, up 0.33%, and that close was also the high of the week. Highest since May 2025 (investinglive.com).

What moved it

The driver is a policy gap. Traders have leaned on the spread for weeks, with the Fed holding its higher for longer line while the Swiss National Bank sits well below, and nothing in that setup has changed. A clean bullish base got flagged near current levels (Barchart.com), and the studies have been turning up (Continuum Economics).

The week ahead

Switzerland goes first with inflation and its leading index. Then the US jobs week takes the wheel.

Levels

Last week's high at 0.8283 doubles as the close, so resistance sits exactly where price is now. Last week's low at 0.8194 is the first floor, with the 0.8214 open resting just above it.

Hold above 0.8283 and the trend has room. Slip under 0.8194 and the run takes its first real dent.

AUD/USDAUD/USD breaks down into the RBA with 0.7026 the level that matters

The Aussie got hit. It opened at 0.7138, which was the high of the week, then bled down to a 0.703 close for a 1.26% loss as the dollar and rising yields did the damage (FOREX.com). Price even cracked below its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2025, though it could not stay under there (investinglive.com).

What moved it

The bigger picture is a breakdown that points to a deeper correction, and the charts are calling for one more leg lower (stonex.com) (Investing.com). Selling has been steady with little to stop it (Continuum Economics). But the RBA is the wild card, since officials still sound worried that inflation runs too hot (XTB.com).

The week ahead

Tuesday is the big one. The RBA decides, then Australian inflation and trade cross the tape before Friday's US jobs report.

Levels

Last week's high at 0.7138 doubles as the open and now sits well above price as the level to reclaim. Last week's low at 0.7026 sits just under the 0.703 close, so the pair is camped on support.

Lose 0.7026 on a close and the deeper correction the charts warn of is live. Reclaim 0.7138 and the breakdown is in doubt.

NZD/USDNZD/USD leaks lower with last week's low at 0.567 in danger

The Kiwi could not hold either. It opened at 0.5735, the week's high, then slid to a 0.5671 close for a 0.70% loss while the US yield edge pressed on it the whole way (FOREX.com). A hawkish Fed did the rest (TradingView).

What moved it

The read stays negative while US yields hold their advantage, and price is pinned to the lower part of the range (economies.com). The support traders watched has already given way (FXStreet) (DailyForex). Nothing here turns until the dollar eases first (VT Markets).

The week ahead

New Zealand is quiet. So the Kiwi trades off US data and one local confidence read.

Levels

Last week's high at 0.5735 lines up with the open and sits above price as the ceiling to break. Last week's low at 0.567 sits right under the 0.5671 close, so the floor is inches away.

A close below 0.567 opens the door to the fresh downside the charts have flagged. A push back through 0.5735 changes the tone.

EUR/JPYEUR/JPY closes the week on its lows with euro inflation next

EUR/JPY opened the week at 180.7 and gave it all back, closing at 179.7 for a 0.69% loss. The pair spent the week lower in yen-driven trade (Continuum Economics), and price had already tagged the downside target one desk flagged (economies.com). Choppy inside a range is the honest description (Continuum Economics).

What moved it

The story sits with the yen. Intervention risk keeps the pair pinned near its lows while the market waits for a stress test (Moomoo). On the charts, corrective bounces keep running into selling (Continuum Economics), and the read stays capped under resistance (economies.com).

The week ahead

Both sides of this cross report. Europe brings inflation, Japan brings Tankan and the BoJ's thinking.

Levels

Last week's high at 180.7, which was also the open, is the first ceiling. Last week's low at 179.7 doubles as the close, so the pair is sitting right on its floor.

A daily close back above 180.7 would say the sellers are done for now. Losing 179.7 on a close opens more downside and confirms the yen bid.

AUD/JPYAUD/JPY sells off into the RBA with the range low giving way

Down 1.45% on the week, AUD/JPY opened at 112.26 and closed right on its low at 110.79. A firmer yen and the risk of intervention swamped the RBA hike traders had already priced (VT Markets). The technical bias stayed bearish (FXStreet).

What moved it

The divergence trade is the frame. Australia still leans toward higher rates while the BoJ hike landed softer than the hawks wanted (TradingPedia). Sellers keep leaning on resistance while buyers defend the lower edge (DailyForex) (DailyForex).

The week ahead

Front-loaded and busy. The RBA decides Tuesday, then Australian inflation lands hours later, with Japan's data through the back half.

Levels

Last week's high at 112.26 sits right at the open and marks the level sellers defended. Last week's low at 110.79 is also the close, so the pair ended the week on the floor.

A close back above 112.26 would ease the pressure. A break under 110.79 keeps the sellers in charge and points lower.

BitcoinBitcoin's strong week meets a wall of US jobs and inflation data

It was a green week. Bitcoin opened at 86597, ran no higher, and closed at 84184 for a 3.71% gain over the prior close of 81169. The move tagged an eight-month high (WSJ), and desks were calling it a crypto spring (Business Insider).

What moved it

Price cleared a hurdle that has shown up before past runs (CoinDesk). The argument over whether crypto winter is finished got loud (CNBC), and a large asset manager's bullish call looks right too (Forbes). But a firm Fed and cooler institutional demand mean the risk cuts both ways.

The week ahead

This is the big one for macro. Core PCE and the jobs report both land, and Bitcoin trades the dollar and risk mood off each print.

Levels

Last week's high at 86597, which was also the open, is the level to clear. Last week's low at 84076 sits just under the close at 84184, so that band is the first floor.

Holding above 84076 keeps the rally intact. A close back through 86597 would say the buyers are pressing again, while losing the low turns the tape defensive.

The calendar that decides it

Every high and medium impact release for 28 September to 2 October 2026, in New York time. High impact rows are in bold. Forecast and previous are the consensus figures published with the calendar.

So the map is simple. Core PCE Wednesday and payrolls Friday set the tone, and the levels for each market tell you which way the tape breaks. We will track every print live as the week trades.

Questions traders asked us this week

Trading gold, FX and crypto on margin carries a high level of risk and you can lose more than your deposit. Nothing on this page is a personal recommendation. Levels are last week's high, low and close and can be invalidated by a single print.