Weekly forecast · 21 to 25 Sep 2026

Sep 21 to 25 weekly setups: gold holds its post-Fed rebound, the yen stays weak, flash PMIs lead a thin calendar

By Emanuele Calcina · Published 19 September 2026 · Prices are Friday closes, pulled 19 September 2026 · All weekly forecasts

Gold took the Fed on the chin and still finished the week higher. It slid to last week's low at 4234.66 after the decision, then buyers dragged it back to close at 4376.60, up 0.67% on the week [h5]. Into this weekend it sits at 4379.

The coming week starts slow and ends busy. Wednesday brings flash PMIs out of the UK and the US, and the Trump and Xi summit lands Wednesday night at 8:00 PM ET. Friday closes with durable goods orders, forecast at -0.5% against last month's 1.1%, plus the final Michigan sentiment read. Every market below gets last week's open, high, low and close, its own calendar and the levels that matter, so you can follow them live.

The week at a glance

Closes are last week's, 14 to 18 September: CoinGecko daily closes at 00:00 UTC; Dukascopy 1-minute bid candles; ECB reference rates via Frankfurter, one close per day. FX rates are one reference close per day, so the weekly high and low are the highest and lowest daily closes, not intraday extremes. The week-ahead times are New York time (ET).

GoldGold recovers into a Fed-speech week with last week's high in play

Gold opened at 4332.56 and closed at 4376.6, up 0.67 percent. It sold off hard right after the Fed decision, then clawed the whole drop back and pushed a touch past where it started, closing green on a week that looked lost by Wednesday (FOREX.com) (stonex.com). The rebound holds. It trades at 4379 now (Mitrade).

What moved it

The driver is the Fed. It raised rates and hinted it is not finished, which usually hurts gold because the metal pays you nothing while yields sit high and bonds tempt the money away (FXStreet). But the bid keeps coming back. Price holds below resistance instead of breaking down (FXStreet) (FXEmpire).

The week ahead

The week is thick with Fed speakers. Two high-impact events sit on top of them, so podium tone and the risk headlines will do most of the driving.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 4399.36, the ceiling that stopped the rebound. Support is last week's low at 4234.66, with last week's close at 4376.6 sitting just under price.

Clear 4399.36 and buyers have the upper hand again. Lose 4376.6, slip back toward the low, and the bounce was just short covering that ran out of names to squeeze.

EUR/USDEUR/USD closes the week on its low as the Fed lifts the dollar

Down 1.14 percent. The euro ran from 1.1551 at the open straight to 1.146 at the close, opening on its high and closing on its low with no real pullback to trade against the whole way down (stonex.com). The hawkish Fed did the damage. The euro could not find a bid (XTB) (Yahoo! Finance Canada).

What moved it

This is a dollar story. The Fed hiked and pointed at more to come, so traders would sooner sit in dollars for the yield than hold a euro with nothing behind it (Yahoo! Finance Canada). Its own growth numbers come next. Until then it just coils in the range (FOREX.com).

The week ahead

Eurozone flash PMIs land Wednesday. After that the risk sits squarely on the dollar side of the pair, where this week has been decided so far.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 1.1551, which was also the open. Support is last week's low at 1.146, which is also where it closed.

Trade under 1.1551 and sellers stay in charge. A close back below 1.146 keeps the pressure on, while reclaiming the high would be the first real sign the selling is done and the coil is breaking the other way.

GBP/USDGBP/USD slides to its weekly low as Fed-BoE divergence widens

Sterling had its worst week since May (stonex.com). It opened at 1.3495 and closed at 1.3344, down 1.21 percent, the same one-way slide the euro drew, with no bounce worth the name from open to close. The hawkish Fed lifted the dollar and did the rest (The Globe and Mail).

What moved it

The theme is policy divergence. The Fed is leaning toward more hikes while the Bank of England sits on a different path, and that gap in expected rates is what pulls money toward the dollar and away from the pound (The Globe and Mail) (stonex.com). The wave readers saw it coming. They called for more weakness before the drop, and price obliged (barchart.com).

The week ahead

Two high-impact UK PMIs hit Wednesday. Then a consumer read Thursday and the US risk events into Friday round out a week where the pound finally gets its own numbers to answer with.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 1.3495, which was also the open. Support is last week's low at 1.3344, the level where the week closed.

Hold under 1.3495 and sellers keep control. A break back above it would be the first crack in the down move, while losing 1.3344 opens the door lower and puts the worst week since May in fresh company.

USD/JPYUSD/JPY rips 2.50 percent higher as the yen sinks after the BoJ

This one went the other way. USD/JPY opened at 154.55 and ran to 157.89 by the close, up 2.50 percent, a clean sweep from the week's low to its high with barely a pause on the way (TradingView). The yen sold off even after the BoJ hiked, because the dollar's rate path beat it (TradingView).

What moved it

Currency markets trade what comes next. The BoJ hike was priced in long before it landed, so the yen got no reward for it while the Fed leaned hawkish and handed the dollar the edge (TradingView). Now the talk turns to intervention. A move this fast tends to draw official attention, and everyone in the market knows it (investingLive) (stonex.com).

The week ahead

Japan's flash PMIs come Wednesday night. The dollar-side events sit right alongside, so the pair can get pushed from both ends of the same session.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 157.89, which was also the close. Support is last week's low at 154.55, which is also where the week opened.

Hold above 154.55 and the trend stays pointed up. A push through 157.89 extends the run, though the faster it climbs the louder the intervention talk gets, and that is the risk on any fresh leg higher.

USD/CADUSD/CAD closes the week at its high with 1.401 the line to beat

USD/CAD opened at 1.3887 and never looked back. It closed the week at 1.401 for a +1.10% gain, right on the high. A stronger dollar kept the pressure on the loonie (FOREX.com), and the climb ran into a sixth day against the resistance that capped it before (stonex.com).

What moved it

The read is simple. A dollar that won't quit, and a loonie leaning on oil. One desk framed the move as both currencies pulling on the pair (Continuum Economics), which is why it rose without running away. The open question is whether the Canadian dollar keeps pace (stonex.com), or whether the support traders keep arguing over gives way (DailyForex).

The week ahead

Canada's retail sales land Thursday. The US calendar is packed with data and Fed voices, plus one late geopolitical wildcard.

Levels

Last week's high sits at 1.401, the same spot the pair closed, so that ceiling is the first job for buyers. Last week's low is 1.3887, level with the open, and it has held as the floor since Monday.

A clean break above 1.401 says the dollar bid still runs things. Losing 1.3887 would be the first crack in this climb.

USD/CHFUSD/CHF closes at a fresh high with 0.8256 now the level to beat

USD/CHF ground higher every session. It opened at 0.8165 and closed at 0.8256, a +1.26% gain. The low matched the open, so there was no real pullback to buy. One desk flagged a fresh high for the year (Continuum Economics), while another warned the breakout rally is testing its limits (FOREX.com).

What moved it

The gap between the Fed and the SNB is the engine here. The dollar has the rate story on its side, and the franc has been the soft leg for weeks. Technical desks still read the setup as positive (Economies.com), though the pullback talk is growing louder near the highs (InsuranceNewsNet). The week hands the franc its own catalyst for once.

The week ahead

This is the franc's turn to speak. The SNB sets rates Thursday morning, and the US data run stays heavy into Friday.

Levels

Last week's high at 0.8256 is also the close, so the ceiling and the exit sit on the same price. Last week's low at 0.8165 lines up with the open and marks the floor of the whole run.

Hold above 0.8256 and the trend stays intact. Lose 0.8165 and this run finally loses its footing.

AUD/USDAUD/USD fades toward 0.7114 as jobs data and the Fed collide

The Aussie couldn't hold its ground. AUD/USD opened at 0.713 and closed at 0.712, down 0.74% on the week, with a tight range between 0.7132 and 0.7114. The rally stalled as Fed risk came back into view (FOREX.com), and price kept drifting lower inside a corrective move (Economies.com).

What moved it

This is a hard spot for the Aussie. The dollar has the Fed behind it, and the RBA is still worried about inflation and not ready to cut. One outlook had the pair testing the support of its old uptrend (FOREX.com), and the wider question is which of these two currencies has the better claim on upside (Continuum Economics). Nothing here is clean.

The week ahead

The Aussie has real domestic data this week. RBA speak opens it, jobs figures land Wednesday night, and the US calendar fills the rest.

Levels

Last week's high at 0.7132 caps the range, with the open at 0.713 just under it. Last week's low at 0.7114 is the floor, and the 0.712 close sits just above it.

A break under 0.7114 opens the door to more of the same slide. Reclaiming 0.7132 would be the first sign sellers are done.

NZD/USDNZD/USD sinks to 0.5711 as the dollar runs the whole show

The kiwi took the worst of the majors. NZD/USD opened at 0.5772, which was also the high, and closed at 0.5711 on the low, a 1.89% drop. A stronger dollar into the rate story did the damage (FXStreet), and the pair simply kept extending its losses (Continuum Economics).

What moved it

The kiwi had no shield this week. With the dollar bid on rate expectations, a currency this sensitive to risk was always going to feel it first. One analysis put price into an extreme zone after the recent peak (Action Forex), and technical desks flagged the break below prior support (Economies.com). There was nothing local to lean on.

The week ahead

There is no New Zealand data on the calendar. So the kiwi rides entirely on US releases and the Fed chorus this week.

Levels

Last week's high at 0.5772 is also the open, both the ceiling and where the week began. Last week's low at 0.5711 is where the week closed, leaving price parked on the floor.

Stay under 0.5711 and the selling has room to run. A move back over 0.5772 would put the whole week's drop in doubt.

EUR/JPYEUR/JPY turns higher into the PMI week with last week's high in play

EUR/JPY opened at 178.52 and closed right at its high of 180.94, up 1.33%, and that same open was also the weekly low. One clean push. The move fits the call that the pair had turned after a long slide (Investing.com), a bounce off the bottom of its channel (FXStreet).

What moved it

The backdrop is a soft yen. It held even as the Bank of Japan kept tightening, and the desks wanted a firmer signal than they got, which left the euro on top into the close. But the bigger calls still lean lower. Citi looks for a drop under 175 (Investing.com), and some desks flag oversold conditions near the 2024 lows (stonex.com).

The week ahead

This is a PMI week on both sides of the cross. Europe first. Japan late Wednesday.

Levels

Last week's high at 180.94 is the line to beat, and it doubles as the weekly close. Last week's low at 178.52 is the floor. It's where the week opened.

Clear 180.94 and the turn has legs. Lose 178.52 and control goes back to the sellers the headlines keep warning about [h3].

AUD/JPYAUD/JPY breaks its range and closes at the highs before Aussie jobs

The Aussie did more work. AUD/JPY ran from a 110.19 open to a 112.42 close, up 1.75%, and the low matched that open, so the whole range printed as one leg up with no give-back into Friday. Clean break. The pair had been stuck above 110 with a bearish lean (FXStreet) before the carry trade lifted it off support (VT Markets).

What moved it

The engine is the split between two central banks. Japan lifted rates and the yen still stayed heavy, while the market keeps pricing more from the Reserve Bank of Australia (TradingPedia). Simple story. It's the carry unwind the desks flagged into the hike (VT Markets).

The week ahead

Plenty to trade here. An RBA speaker on Monday, then Aussie jobs late Wednesday. Japan's PMIs land in between.

Levels

Last week's high at 112.42 is the level to clear, and it also marks the weekly close. Last week's low at 110.19 is the floor. That's where the week opened.

Hold above 112.42 and the range break stays alive. Slip back under 110.19 and the bearish view from the charts is right back on the table [h4].

BitcoinBitcoin shakes off the Fed and closes the week at its high

Up 6.06% on the week. Bitcoin opened at 78173 and closed at 81474, its high, after dropping to a 75590 low midweek and clawing the move back before Friday. Big swing. The pullback came as the Fed raised rates (Bitcoin Magazine), and price sat near a four week low before it steadied and turned (WSJ).

What moved it

The story around it stays mixed. Institutional demand had cooled and a regulatory clarity vote failed (WSJ), which capped confidence even as the price recovered. So the chart and the mood disagree. The tape is talking up a trend reversal after the bounce (FOREX.com).

The week ahead

Heavy week for the dollar side. A wall of Fed speakers piles on top of Friday's hard data, and a Trump Xi summit can swing risk by itself.

Levels

Last week's high at 81474 is the line, and it doubles as the weekly close. Last week's low at 75590 is the floor. It printed midweek, before the reversal.

A daily close above 81474 keeps the reversal alive. Lose 75590 and the Fed and the outflow story won [h3].

The calendar that decides it

Every high and medium impact release for 21 to 25 September 2026, in New York time. High impact rows are in bold. Forecast and previous are the consensus figures published with the calendar.

None of this needs a forecast. You have last week's open, high, low and close on every market, the calendar in ET and the current price to lean on. Follow the levels live with us this week and let the data pick the direction.

Questions traders asked us this week

Trading gold, FX and crypto on margin carries a high level of risk and you can lose more than your deposit. Nothing on this page is a personal recommendation. Levels are last week's high, low and close and can be invalidated by a single print.