Weekly forecast · 19 to 23 Oct 2026

Oct 19 to 23 weekly setups: gold defends last week's low, UK inflation and jobs, US flash PMIs

By Emanuele Calcina · Published 17 October 2026 · Prices are Friday closes, pulled 17 October 2026 · All weekly forecasts

Gold spent last week pinned between a high of 4216.89 and a low of 4073.32, then closed at 4165.27, down 0.59%. As I write it trades at 4166.10, almost exactly where it finished Friday. So the fight from last week is still open.

Last week's move was a CPI story and a yields story, with reports of China buying Treasuries knocking US yields lower [h4][h5]. This week the action moves offshore: Canada prints inflation Monday, UK jobs land Tuesday, UK inflation follows Wednesday at 3.4% against 3.1% last time and Japan inflation lands Thursday. The US side is quieter, mostly housing data early and flash PMIs to close, with some reads still seeing gold defend support and a rebound in reach [h7][h8]. Every market below comes with last week's open, high, low and close, plus its own calendar and levels for Oct 19 to 23.

The week at a glance

Closes are last week's, 12 to 16 October: CoinGecko daily closes at 00:00 UTC; Dukascopy 1-minute bid candles; ECB reference rates via Frankfurter, one close per day. FX rates are one reference close per day, so the weekly high and low are the highest and lowest daily closes, not intraday extremes. The week-ahead times are New York time (ET).

GoldGold slips on the week but holds near last week's close

Gold opened at 4190.27 and closed at 4165.27, off 0.59% on the week. The range was wide. It ran from a high at 4216.89 all the way down to a low at 4073.32, which means that nearly flat close hides a week of real swings underneath it (FOREX.com). Desks called it a bounce off support after a hard drop (StoneX).

What moved it

The rebound leaned on a softer dollar and lower US yields, which cut the cost of holding a metal that pays you nothing while you wait (FXStreet). Momentum cuts both ways here. Some desks see more recovery if buyers keep defending the line, while others call the tape stretched and say it could snap hard in either direction once a real catalyst lands (Brave New Coin) (Mitrade) (StoneX).

The week ahead

No CPI this week. No Fed either. The dollar's tone and the direction of yields will matter more than any single housing print or sentiment number that crosses the wire.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 4216.89. The open at 4190.27 sits below it and above current price, so it caps the first push higher before the high even comes into play. Support sits at last week's low at 4073.32, well below the market, while last week's close at 4165.27 sits just under current price as the first thing bulls need to keep.

Back above the open at 4190.27 and the high comes into view. Lose the close and the low is next.

EUR/USDEUR/USD grinds higher and closes the week on its high

A clean up week for the euro, plus 0.42%. The dip got bought. It opened at 1.1181 and closed at 1.1253, which was also the high of the week, and the low sat right on the open, so the whole range held above where it started (StoneX).

What moved it

The lift came from a softer dollar as traders pushed the timing of the next Fed move further out, which handed the euro room to climb (FOREX.com). France is the drag. Budget worries there still hang over the single currency, and a firmer US economy on the other side of the pair can cap how far this bounce runs (DailyForex).

The week ahead

Euro data and US data split the week. Nothing top-tier lands. Watch how the dollar reacts to the US numbers and listen for the tone when Lagarde speaks midweek.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 1.1253, which was also the close, so the euro ended the week pinned right against its own ceiling with nothing left in the tank above. Support sits at last week's low at 1.1181, the exact level of the open, the floor of the whole range.

Hold above the close at 1.1253 and the up week stays intact. Slip back under the open at 1.1181 and the move reads like noise.

GBP/USDGBP/USD breaks higher into a heavy week of UK data

Sterling was the strongest of the group, up 0.87%. It went one way. It opened at 1.3235 and finished at 1.3335, the open marking the low and the close marking the high, a steady climb with no pullback worth the name through the whole week (Continuum Economics).

What moved it

The move rode a softer dollar as traders eased off bets on an imminent Fed hike, which let the pound push higher without much fighting it (Continuum Economics). The cap is at home. Worries about the UK budget and the cost of government borrowing keep buyers cautious, and some still flag a topping pattern sitting on the chart (DailyForex).

The week ahead

A UK-heavy week. Jobs and inflation land early, retail sales close it out. Sterling leans on home data far more than the dollar this time.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 1.3335, which was also the close, so the pair finished the week pinned to the very top of its range with no room spared above. Support sits at last week's low at 1.3235, the same spot as the open, the base of the whole week.

Stay above the close at 1.3335 and the breakout holds. Drop back under the open at 1.3235 and the up week fades.

USD/JPYUSD/JPY eases off its high and closes near the week's low

The dollar slipped against the yen, down 0.15%. Nothing dramatic. Just a bleed. It opened at 158.60, which was also the high, and closed at 158.02, just a touch above the low at 157.98, a slow drift lower that ran through all five sessions (investingLive).

What moved it

The weight came from lower US yields and calmer geopolitics, which trimmed the dollar's edge over the yen (Investing.com). But it runs both ways. A hawkish Fed and the standing risk of Japanese intervention pull the other direction, so the pair has real reasons to stall before it travels far in either (StoneX).

The week ahead

The yen takes over late. Japan's inflation report lands Thursday night ET, and that print is the single biggest swing factor for this pair all week.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 158.60, which was also the open, the ceiling the pair tried and failed to clear all week before rolling back over toward the low. Support sits at last week's low at 157.98, just under last week's close at 158.02.

Lose the low at 157.98 and the slow bleed extends. Reclaim the open at 158.60 and the week's weakness gets unwound.

USD/CHFUSD/CHF rolls over from the year's highs and closes pinned to 0.824

The pair opened at 0.8328 and never built on it. It closed the week right on its low at 0.824, down 0.85%. That capped a climb that had stacked up over seven weeks before turning down from the year's highs (FOREX.com), and the early bounce ran into the old uptrend it had already broken, then faded (StoneX).

What moved it

The read behind it is simple. The SNB is still read as leaning easy while the dollar had been strong, and that pairing had carried price higher for weeks (TradingView). Now the tone has turned cautious, with price caught between support and resistance (investingLive) (Continuum Economics).

The week ahead

Switzerland is quiet, so this is mostly a dollar week. The one franc-specific item lands Thursday.

Levels

Resistance sits at last week's high at 0.8334, with the open at 0.8328 just under it. Support is last week's low at 0.824, exactly where the week closed.

A push back above 0.8328 would say the bounce has legs and the reversal was just a pause. A clean break under 0.824 says the sellers are still in charge and the franc keeps the upper hand.

USD/CADUSD/CAD surrenders a five-week climb and lands on its low at 1.4161

USD/CAD printed a clean down week. It opened at its high of 1.4262 and closed at its low of 1.4161, off 0.46%. A climb that had run five weeks finally stalled at big resistance (FOREX.com), and a hotter inflation number out of Canada gave the loonie a push late (investingLive).

What moved it

This was a Canada story as much as a dollar story (Continuum Economics). Fresh inflation data firmed the case for the Bank of Canada to sit tight, and that took the steam out of the dollar's run (investingLive). The bears now have the figure in their sights (FXStreet).

The week ahead

Canada carries this week. The inflation set lands Monday morning, with the Bank of Canada surveys right behind it.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 1.4262, which was also the open before the slide. Support sits at last week's low at 1.4161, the level the week closed on.

Reclaiming 1.4262 would say the climb was not done and buyers are back. A drop through 1.4161 hands the floor to the dollar bears who already have control [h7].

AUD/USDAUD/USD slips back under 0.6974 with the trend break now on trial

The Aussie poked up to 0.701 early in the week, then lost the thread. It opened at 0.6974 and closed at 0.6959, down 0.32%, as the sellers grabbed the wheel on soft data (investingLive). The break of trend the bulls were after is now on trial (StoneX).

What moved it

The chart is at a decision point. One camp thinks a downside break is about to trigger (DailyForex), another thinks price is walking into a resistance wall (TradingView). Add the Middle East and US policy cross-currents and you get a pair that can whip around fast (FOREX.com).

The week ahead

Two RBA speakers bookend the Australian side, and the local PMIs land late Thursday. The US data does the heavy lifting midweek.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 0.701, with the open at 0.6974 as the first hurdle below it. Support sits at last week's low at 0.6911.

A reclaim of 0.6974 would ease the bearish case and put 0.701 back in view. Lose 0.6911 and the downside break the sellers are watching for goes live [h3].

NZD/USDNZD/USD rebounds from a year low and shuts the week on its high

The Kiwi was the only one of these four to gain. It opened at 0.5599 and closed at its high of 0.5664, up 0.89%. That bounce came off a low for the year (Continuum Economics) as the pair worked off the selling that had built against it (Economies.com).

What moved it

The lift was mostly a softer dollar story, which handed the Kiwi room to recover. But the US still carries a yield edge that limits how far the Kiwi can run (StoneX). Most reads see the rebound as limited, with the broader lean still lower (FXStreet) (www.tmgm.com).

The week ahead

New Zealand inflation is the one that counts, and it lands Wednesday evening. The US calendar fills in around it.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 0.5664, which is also where the week closed. Support sits at last week's low at 0.5599, the level the rally started from.

Holding above 0.5599 keeps the bounce alive. A break back below it hands control to the sellers who still read this as a recovery that runs out of room [h7].

EUR/GBPEUR/GBP closes near last week's low with UK data in the chair

The euro opened at 0.8448 and went out at 0.8439, a 0.44% loss on the week and another leg of a trend that keeps leaning lower (Continuum Economics). Most of the damage traces back to France, where the fiscal fight has kept the single currency on the back foot (Financial Mirror). Rate differentials did the rest, and the pair slid below its July lows (VT Markets).

What moved it

France is the story. Bond markets have calmed a little, which gave the euro room to breathe, but a quieter tape does not fix a budget that still has to pass (Financial Mirror). On the other side, the Bank of England keeps saying it wants inflation back at target, and the market still reads the rate gap against the euro (VT Markets).

The week ahead

This is a UK week. The calendar is stacked on Sterling, with the euro side quieter until the surveys.

Levels

Resistance sits at last week's high of 0.8461, with the open at 0.8448 the first marker below it. Support is last week's low at 0.8438, right where price closed at 0.8439.

Price went out pinned to the lows. A clean break of 0.8438 keeps the trend pointed down, while a push back above 0.8461 is the first sign the sellers are done.

EUR/CADEUR/CAD barely moves as Canadian inflation and retail sales set the tone

Call it a draw. The pair opened at 1.5946, which was also its high, and closed at 1.5935, a 0.04% change that barely registers (TradingView). Buyers and sellers cancelled out, and the latest tape gives little to chase (TipRanks).

What moved it

Two slow stories pull against each other. France and its unresolved budget keep a lid on the euro, while softer oil has thinned the bid under the Canadian dollar. The chart still reads as a channel drifting lower, and nothing last week changed that (TradingView).

The week ahead

Canada owns both ends of this week. Inflation opens it Monday, retail sales closes it Friday, the euro side thin in between.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 1.5946, which was also the open. Support is last week's low at 1.5918, with the close at 1.5935 sitting between the two.

The range is tight. A break above 1.5946 or below 1.5918 turns this from chop into a move, and Monday and Friday are the likely triggers.

GBP/JPYGBP/JPY closes at the week's high as Sterling firms and the yen slips

Buyers ran it up. The pair opened at 209.91 and closed right on its high at 210.72, a 0.72% gain for the week (TradingPedia). Sterling found a bid on firmer UK fiscal and rate signals, while the yen stayed soft under Japan's spending worries (Moomoo).

What moved it

Two different problems, one direction. Japan's new spending plans and a large debt pile keep the yen under a cloud, even with the Bank of Japan maybe still tightening (Moomoo). Sterling, meanwhile, has leaned on a better growth read and the chance the Bank of England stays higher for longer. The chart says the pair is near the top of its range (TradingPedia).

The week ahead

Both currencies report inflation this week, which is rare and makes this one genuinely two-sided.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 210.72, which is also where the week closed. Support sits at last week's low of 209.27, with the open at 209.91 the first shelf above it.

Price closed on its high, so the sellers have work to do. Hold above 210.72 and the push continues, lose 209.27 and the range read comes back [h7].

BitcoinBitcoin slides as ETF outflows and a firmer dollar cool the mood

Another red week. Bitcoin opened at 81795 and tagged 83115 before rolling over to close at 81624, a 2.47% loss (Yahoo Finance). Spot ETF outflows did the heavy lifting, and the slide lined up with the reaction to the September CPI report (Quartz).

What moved it

The bid from funds is what cooled off. When money leaves spot ETFs, there is less to soak up profit taking and the tape gets thin (Yahoo Finance). Add a firmer dollar and the usual October optimism loses its shine, with the 'Uptober' hope now in question (Yahoo Finance).

The week ahead

No crypto-specific data, so Bitcoin trades off the dollar and the US growth read.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 83115, with the open at 81795 a nearer hurdle. Support is last week's low at 81524, just under where price closed at 81624.

Price closed near the lows again. Lose 81524 and the sellers stay in charge, reclaim 83115 and the Uptober crowd gets its argument back [h7].

The calendar that decides it

Every high and medium impact release for 19 to 23 October 2026, in New York time. High impact rows are in bold. Forecast and previous are the consensus figures published with the calendar.

Last week's high at 4216.89 and low at 4073.32 are the two lines I'm watching into Oct 23. If the US data stays soft and the inflation reads abroad run hot, gold's close at 4165.27 is the line the week turns on. Follow the levels with us live and let the calendar do the talking.

Questions traders asked us this week

Trading gold, FX and crypto on margin carries a high level of risk and you can lose more than your deposit. Nothing on this page is a personal recommendation. Levels are last week's high, low and close and can be invalidated by a single print.