Weekly forecast · 14 to 18 Sep 2026

Sep 14 to 18 weekly setups: Fed decides Wednesday, gold down 1.87%, BoE and BoJ close the week

By Emanuele Calcina · Published 13 September 2026 · Prices are Friday closes, pulled 13 September 2026 · All weekly forecasts

Gold lost 1.87% last week, closing at 4347.51 after tagging a high of 4442.7. The low was 4291.95, so the full range played out in five sessions. It's at 4349.70 now, right back near the close.

The coming week turns on the Fed. The rate decision, the statement, the new projections and the press conference all hit Wednesday afternoon, the first three at 2:00 PM ET and the conference at 2:30 PM ET [h7]. US retail sales come earlier that morning at 8:30 AM ET, then the Bank of England reports Thursday at 7:00 AM ET and the Bank of Japan overnight into Friday. Every market below gets last week's open, high, low and close, plus its own calendar in ET and the levels worth watching.

The week at a glance

Closes are last week's, 7 to 11 September: CoinGecko daily closes at 00:00 UTC; Dukascopy 1-minute bid candles; ECB reference rates via Frankfurter, one close per day. FX rates are one reference close per day, so the weekly high and low are the highest and lowest daily closes, not intraday extremes. The week-ahead times are New York time (ET).

GoldGold slips 1.87% into the Fed with last week's low back in the frame

Gold opened at 4422.91 and closed at 4347.51, down 1.87%. The slide is real. It is the second leg of a two-week drop, and it puts August's breakout on trial while buyers fight to steady the tape into the inflation print (stonex.com) (forex.com) (FXEmpire).

What moved it

The drop came with the inflation report in view. Middle East tension sat under the tape too, the kind of bid that shows up on a bad headline and fades on a quiet one (FXStreet). So gold spent the week caught between a firmer dollar and the reasons people still hold the metal (FXEmpire).

The week ahead

Everything routes through Wednesday afternoon. The rest is noise until then.

Levels

Resistance sits at last week's high of 4442.7, with the open at 4422.91 stacked above the current 4349.70. Support is last week's low at 4291.95, and the 4347.51 close sits just under the current price.

A daily close back above the open says the slide has stalled. Losing the low opens a deeper flush. The Fed is the trigger either way.

EUR/USDEUR/USD closes on its lows and walks into a Fed that could push lower

Down 0.26% on the week, the euro finished at 1.1592 after opening at 1.1622. It closed right on its low. The ECB had already delivered its message and the market moved on fast, so what took over was the dollar and the run-up to US inflation, the story that now sets the tone for this pair (stonex.com) (tradingview.com) (Yahoo Finance).

What moved it

This is a dollar week more than a euro week. The euro is a passenger. With Fed hike bets climbing into the meeting, the pair sits at the mercy of what Washington decides on Wednesday, while the ECB's own call is already behind it and any lift it gave has drained away (Yahoo Finance) (stonex.com).

The week ahead

Nothing on the euro side moves the needle. This is all about Wednesday in Washington.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 1.1652, with the 1.1622 open sitting above the 1.1592 close. Support is last week's low at 1.1592, which is exactly where price closed.

Close is sitting on support, so there is little cushion. A clean break below opens fresh weakness. A reclaim of the open would take the pressure off, and the Fed decides which.

GBP/USDGBP/USD ends flat on its low with UK data and the Fed both live

Cable gave back a mid-week GDP lift and closed soft (stonex.com) (XTB.com). The bid did not last. It opened at 1.3531 and closed at 1.3508, a 0.16% slip that parked it right on the week's low, and the pull toward US inflation with rising Fed hike bets capped the pair by Friday (Yahoo Finance).

What moved it

So where is the weight? On the dollar and the Fed, because a real UK data beat still could not lift the pound (Yahoo Finance) (XTB.com). This week is different, since the pound gets its own high-impact prints alongside the US calendar.

The week ahead

Three central-bank-grade events in five days. Read them in order.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 1.3565, with the 1.3531 open above the 1.3508 close. Support is last week's low at 1.3508, the exact level where price finished.

Cable closed on support with no room to spare. Break it and the sellers take control. Hold it and the UK data gets a chance to matter, so the order of events this week is the real tell.

USD/JPYUSD/JPY breaks lower as BOJ bets and yen strength stack up

The open at 154.75 was also the high, and the pair bled from there to close at 154.04, off 1.41%. One-way traffic. Yen demand did the damage from the first bell as traders leaned harder into the case for a Bank of Japan move and cut dollar longs before the meetings that close out the week (XTB.com) (Investing.com).

What moved it

The move fits a chart that has already rolled over, with a death cross flagged into the meetings (TradingView). Under it sits a heavy yen backdrop and the risk of official pushback if the pair runs too far (stonex.com). US-Iran headlines keep the tape jumpy (investingLive).

The week ahead

Both sides of this pair report. The Fed on Wednesday, the Bank of Japan overnight into Friday.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 154.75, the same open the pair fell from. Support is last week's low at 153.27, with the 154.04 close sitting above it.

A push back above the open questions the down move. Lose the low and the slide extends. With two central banks live, the break could come fast and in either direction.

USD/CADUSD/CAD closes on last week's high as the Fed decision looms

USD/CAD opened at 1.382 and pushed straight up to settle at 1.3858 for a +0.42% week. That close sat right on last week's high, which tells you buyers stayed in control into Friday. The Canadian dollar spent the week on the back foot (Baystreet.ca), and trade worries kept the pressure on it (forex.com).

What moved it

The story is a soft Canadian dollar as much as a firm greenback. Weak crude tends to lean on the loonie, and that backdrop stayed in place. One technical read saw the topside as capped (Continuum Economics), while another had price holding above firm support (Economies.com).

The week ahead

Two dates matter. Canada's inflation on Monday, then the Fed on Wednesday.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 1.3858, which is also where the week closed. Support is last week's low at 1.3768.

A clean break above 1.3858 keeps the buyers in charge. Losing 1.3768 would be the first sign the loonie is fighting back.

USD/CHFUSD/CHF grinds to its weekly high with the Fed in the way

Up +0.75% on the week, and the close came at the top of the range. USD/CHF opened at 0.8092 and settled at 0.8153, right on last week's high. Buyers were pushing back toward the year's highs (forex.com) while the tape sat quiet ahead of US inflation (FXStreet).

What moved it

This is a story about a soft franc. It usually gets safe-haven bids, but low Swiss rates and the risk of central bank action have made it less appealing. Charts saw room for the pair to keep pushing higher (Continuum Economics), and the bias stayed with the buyers into the decision.

The week ahead

The franc has no data of its own this week, so the dollar runs the show. Everything points to Wednesday.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 0.8153, which is also where the week closed. Support is last week's low at 0.8071.

Hold above 0.8153 and the buyers stay in the driver's seat. A slip back under 0.8071 would say the franc has found some footing.

AUD/USDAUD/USD fades to last week's low with the Fed dead ahead

Sellers had the last word. AUD/USD opened at 0.7214 and tagged a high at 0.7225. From there it gave the gains back and closed at 0.7173, down -0.43% and on the low. A dollar-led pullback knocked it back (Continuum Economics), and it kept stalling at resistance overhead (Economies.com).

What moved it

Here is the odd part. Even with a warm US inflation read last week, the dollar could not hold its early bid, and the Aussie kept finding buyers near its recent highs. A breakout was building as a stronger yen softened the dollar (Investing.com). That tension, a heavy close against a stubborn bid, is what makes this one interesting into the Fed.

The week ahead

Plenty on the card. US retail sales and the Fed midweek, then Bullock late Thursday.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 0.7225, with the open at 0.7214 just under it. Support is last week's low at 0.7173, which is also where price closed.

Break back above 0.7225 and the dip looks like noise. Lose 0.7173 on a closing basis and the sellers get the trend they want.

NZD/USDNZD/USD sinks to its weekly low with the Fed and Kiwi GDP due

This was the weak one. NZD/USD opened at 0.5876, which turned out to be the high, then slid all week to close at 0.5821, down -1.05%. Bears kept control of the tape (FXStreet), and the Kiwi took extra pressure from soft China trade data (vtmarkets.com).

What moved it

The Kiwi has been the softest of the majors, and the slide came with the market waiting on both the Fed and New Zealand's own growth print. One chart read had it under pressure inside a downtrend (Continuum Economics), so the path of least resistance pointed lower. Dollar softness has kept the drop from getting uglier (vtmarkets.com), but the bias stayed heavy into a busy stretch.

The week ahead

Two heavy hitters land the same day. The Fed in the afternoon, then New Zealand GDP in the evening.

Levels

Resistance is last week's high at 0.5876, which is also last week's open. Support is last week's low at 0.5821, where the week closed.

A push back above 0.5876 would break the run of lower closes. Give up 0.5821 and the sellers likely press the point.

EUR/GBPEUR/GBP holds a tight range as the Bank of England looms

EUR/GBP opened the week at 0.8589 and closed at 0.8582, down 0.09%. Quiet by any measure, and the price action agreed. The pair stayed stuck inside a tight range (Continuum Economics), and it spent the week testing support near old highs (FXStreet).

What moved it

The story underneath is a tug of war. Eurozone GDP was revised higher while German output and UK house prices softened (vtmarkets.com). So the euro had reasons to hold, and sterling had its own soft spots to answer for.

The week ahead

Sterling has a full calendar. UK inflation and the Bank of England land in the same week.

Levels

Last week's high at 0.8592 is the first ceiling, with the open at 0.8589 just beneath it. Last week's low at 0.8574 is the floor, and the close at 0.8582 sits above it.

A clean break of 0.8592 ends the range that held all week [h4]. A drop through 0.8574 puts the euro on the back foot before the Bank of England.

EUR/CADEUR/CAD closes at the highs, and Canadian inflation gets the next word

The euro edged up on the loonie. It opened at 1.6062 and closed at 1.6064 for a 0.16% gain. Small move, but the close landed right on the week's high, and a breakout setup has been flagged on the chart (tradingview.com).

What moved it

The read here is a rate story. A firmer euro set against a Canadian dollar that leans on oil and energy is the backdrop, and the breakout call (tradingview.com) rests on the euro clearing the top of its range.

The week ahead

Everything for the loonie lands at once. Canada's inflation report drops Monday morning, four readings at the same time.

Levels

Last week's high at 1.6064 is resistance, and it is also the close, so the pair sits right on it. Last week's low at 1.6033 is the support to watch, with the open at 1.6062 well above it.

A push above 1.6064 confirms the breakout that has been called [h1]. A slip back under 1.6033 says the inflation data went against the euro.

AUD/JPYAUD/JPY breaks down 1.84% before a Bank of Japan meeting that could shock

Down hard. AUD/JPY opened at 111.64 and closed at 110.49, a 1.84% drop that left it right on the lows. The yen did the damage. It rallied on firm Japanese data (Action Forex) while the chart stayed weak (vtmarkets.com).

What moved it

The bigger point is the meeting ahead. One view making the rounds says the Bank of Japan is the real risk this week, more than the Fed (MarketWatch). With a bearish read still in place (Investing.com), the pair went into the weekend on soft footing.

The week ahead

Two central banks are in play, but one matters more. The BOJ decision and press conference are the main event.

Levels

Last week's high at 111.64 is resistance, and it doubles as the open, so it capped the whole week. Last week's low at 110.49 is support, and since the pair closed there, it is already being tested.

A close back above 111.64 says the yen bid is fading. A break under 110.49 opens fresh weakness right as the BOJ steps up [h6].

BitcoinBitcoin drops 3.89% into the Fed with last week's low back in play

Bitcoin had a rough week. It opened at 79093 and closed at 77204, off 3.89%, with the low down at 76555. It jumped at one point and brushed aside a warm US inflation print (Bitcoin Magazine), but it still lost a support it had been leaning on (Yahoo Finance).

What moved it

The tape is all about the Fed now (Yahoo Finance). On top of that, a White House crypto warning has been going around (Forbes), and there is talk of political risk from the Clarity Act and the midterms (CNBC). So the mood is cautious going in.

The week ahead

This is the big one. The Fed decision and its press conference both land Wednesday.

Levels

Last week's high at 79093 is resistance, and it is also the open, so it sits well above the close. Last week's low at 76555 is the support line, with the close at 77204 just above it.

A push back above 79093 says the Fed calmed nerves. A break of 76555 says the selloff is not over [h7].

The calendar that decides it

Every high and medium impact release for 14 to 18 September 2026, in New York time. High impact rows are in bold. Forecast and previous are the consensus figures published with the calendar.

Wednesday is the whole week. Watch how gold behaves around last week's high at 4442.7 and last week's low at 4291.95 once the Fed prints, since that range is the map. Middle East headlines are still a live wildcard for the safe-haven bid [h6], so follow the levels with us as they break.

Questions traders asked us this week

Trading gold, FX and crypto on margin carries a high level of risk and you can lose more than your deposit. Nothing on this page is a personal recommendation. Levels are last week's high, low and close and can be invalidated by a single print.