Event preview · CPI · Tuesday 10 November 2026, 8:30 AM ET

US CPI November 2026: the inflation print that can swing gold

By Emanuele Calcina · Published 4 November 2026 · Gold reaction measured on Dukascopy hourly data · Our news-day rules

8:30 AM ET on Tuesday 10 November is when October CPI hits the tape, and the headline is forecast at 0.3% MoM against 0.6% last month. Core is seen at 0.2% versus 0.3% prior. This is the number gold has been coiling under for weeks (SchiffGold.com), with price near $4,063 after sliding toward a one-year low as the rate outlook shifted (BullionVault) (CNBC). Across the last eight CPI prints, our Dukascopy hourly data puts the median release-hour range at $50, about 2.1 times the normal range for that hour. Gold finished higher two hours later five times and lower three. Oil swings have already dragged price around into this one (investingLive). The print sets the tone for the rest of the week.

Forecasts are consensus figures from the TradingView economic calendar and can move before the release.

What October CPI could mean for gold now

The headline everyone trades is Inflation Rate MoM, forecast at 0.3% for October against 0.6% the month before. Core MoM is pencilled in at 0.2%, down from 0.3%. The year-on-year figures land in the same release, with headline running 3.7% and core at 2.6% last time; no consensus was published for those here, so treat them as context. A softer headline would say price pressure is cooling. A firmer one feeds the higher-for-longer rate view that has been grinding on gold (CNBC).

Gold comes in coiled. Analysts have flagged breakout levels to watch before this print (FXEmpire), and the metal has been struggling near a possible breakdown (StoneX). Price sits around $4,063 after touching a one-year low, with silver sliding under $50 as the higher-for-longer view firmed (CNBC). Oil volatility has been pushing gold around while the market waits on this number (investingLive). One inflation reading will not settle the rate debate, but it can decide the next leg.

How gold moved on the last eight prints

Here is what our measurement shows across the eight CPI releases from 11 March to 14 October. The median release-hour range is $50, and the biggest was $98.1 on 11 September, when gold ran $68.1 higher over the next two hours. A normal hour of that same slot carries a median range near $24.3, so CPI hour has run about 2.1 times a quiet one. Gold closed higher two hours later five times and lower three, so direction has been close to a coin toss.

The size of the move has been the real story. On 12 May gold dropped $27.4 in the two hours after an in-line 0.6% print. On 14 October, another 0.6% match, it fell $51.2. Yet 10 June, in line at 0.5%, saw gold climb $31.9, and 14 July, the one real downside surprise at -0.4% versus -0.1%, sent it $45.4 higher on a $77.8 range. Same kind of number, very different hours. Positioning and tone did as much work as the beat itself.

Measured on Dukascopy XAUUSD hourly candles, 11 Mar 2026 to 14 Oct 2026. The median release hour covered $50.00 against $24.30 for the same hour on a normal weekday. Two hours later gold was higher 5 times and lower 3 times.

Hotter, in line or cooler: three paths

Three ways this can break, and none of them are promises. A hotter headline, above 0.3%, would tend to lift yields and the dollar as the higher-for-longer view gets fresh fuel (Reuters). That backdrop has often weighed on gold, and recent prints show it has slid when inflation ran warm (Reuters). An in-line 0.3% would remove the surprise, but our data says that has not meant a quiet hour; 12 May and 14 October were both in-line and still moved gold $27.4 and $51.2 in two hours.

A cooler headline, under 0.3%, would be the one that argues inflation is fading, and that mix usually pulls yields and the dollar back and gives gold room. The 14 July downside miss fits that shape, with gold up $45.4 after the number came in soft. None of this is a signal. The first candle can fade, the second can reverse it, and an in-line print can still produce the widest hour of the month. Treat each path as conditional and let the number print first.

When the number lands around the world

The number drops at 8:30 AM ET, which is the same clock in Toronto and the New York open window. In London it is 1:30 PM, in Madrid, Rome and Amsterdam 2:30 PM, in Dubai 5:30 PM, and in India 7:00 PM. All of it on Tuesday 10 November. For European desks the print lands mid-afternoon, deep into their session. For Gulf and India traders it hits in the evening. Know your local clock so you are at the screen before 8:30 AM ET, not chasing the first candle after.

The hour before tends to go quiet and jumpy at once, with thin liquidity and spreads starting to stretch. The release hour itself is the one our data measures at a $50 median range, and it has stretched to $98.1. Expect the spread to widen right at 8:30, the first print to whip, and the real range to fill out over the next hour or two, since our move window runs to the close of the following hour. Give it time before you trust the direction.

How our desk handles the CPI hour

Our rules for a release like this are boring on purpose. No new entries in the run-up to 8:30 AM ET. If a trade is already running, its stop sits outside the expected range, not tucked inside a band that a $50 median hour can clip on noise. We do not treat the first move after the number as the move; the opening candle is often a fake-out that gets reversed. And we assume spreads widen into the print, so fills around 8:30 are worse than they look on a calm chart.

So the plan is patience. Let the release hour breathe and the spread come back in before you read anything into price. Our measurement says five of the last eight ended higher two hours on and three lower, which is reason enough to wait for confirmation instead of guessing the candle. The release is a volatility event we manage. The standing rules are how we keep one noisy hour from writing the whole week.

The short version

One line to carry into Tuesday: 8:30 AM ET, headline forecast 0.3% against 0.6%, and a release hour our Dukascopy data pegs at a $50 median that has reached $98.1. Direction has been a near coin toss, five up and three down over two hours, so the edge is in the handling. Let the spread settle and the first candle prove itself before you read a direction. Any running stop stays outside the expected range. Gold is coiled near a one-year low with the rate outlook doing the heavy lifting (BullionVault) (CNBC). Respect the hour and let the number lead.

Questions traders asked

Trading gold on margin carries a high level of risk and you can lose more than your deposit. Nothing on this page is a personal recommendation. Past reactions to a release do not predict the next one.